Senate foe of Obama's gun-control bid may face voter backlash

By Thomas Ferraro

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire faces a possible voter backlash along with critical ads from gun control advocates following her vote against President Barack Obama's bid to curb gun violence.

According to a survey by Public Policy Polling released Wednesday, Ayotte's approval rating stands at 44 percent, down 15 points since October when the organization last conducted a poll on her. The poll of 933 New Hampshire voters, from April 19 to April 21, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.

Fifty percent of those polled said Ayotte's vote against background checks legislation would make them less likely to support her for re-election. Seventy-five percent said they supported background checks.

The survey did not make clear how much, if any, of the decline in her approval rating over six months was attributable to her April 17 vote that helped defeat the bill expanding background checks for gun purchasers.

Still, gun control proponents seized on the poll as a sign of the dangers awaiting members of Congress who vote with the gun lobby against popular legislation like the defeated bill.

"I think we are at a turning point," Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York said on Thursday at a breakfast roundtable with reporters hosted by The Christian Science Monitor.

"Lots of senators who thought it was safe to vote against it (gun control) ... aren't so sure anymore," Schumer said.

A gun-control group founded by former Democratic Congresswoman Gabby Giffords of Arizona, who was wounded in a 2011 mass shooting in Arizona, began airing radio ads this week in New Hampshire criticizing Ayotte.

The group, Americans for Responsible Solutions, is also sponsoring ads aimed at Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky for helping defeat the bipartisan measure to expand background checks, which failed to advance in the U.S. Senate by a six vote margin.

"As Gabby said last week, if we can't keep our communities safe with the Congress we have, we will work to change Congress," said Pia Carusone, executive director of Giffords' group.

Ayotte, elected to the Senate with 60 percent of the vote in 2010, is not up for re-election until 2016.

McConnell faces re-election next year, and a Republican aide brushed off the ads against him.

"It is tough to be too pro-gun in Kentucky," the aide said.

Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said, "New Hampshire is a good bellwether for fallout from the gun vote."

"There's serious backlash from voters toward Kelly Ayotte for how she handled this issue," he said.

EDITORIAL CRITICISM

Ayotte has also drawn editorial criticism in New Hampshire from the Portsmouth Herald, which ripped into the senator with an editorial on Sunday headlined, "If you want gun control, vote Ayotte out of office."

It is unclear what, if any, lasting political damage she has suffered.

Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said, "I suspect this will be old news by 2016."

Ayotte's office declined a request for an interview with the senator, but noted she offered alternative legislation last week, including measures designed to help keep guns out of the hands of the mentally ill.

Ayotte, one of the few remaining Republican U.S. lawmakers from New England, was the only senator from the region to vote against the bipartisan measure.

Senior Senate Democratic aides said it had been assumed by many in the party that Ayotte might vote for the proposal, but that they had received no assurances from her.

One aide said they expected her to possibly vote yes because veteran Senator John McCain of Arizona has been seen as a mentor of Ayotte, who is in her first term. McCain was among a handful of Senate Republicans who voted for the measure.

(Reporting By Thomas Ferraro; Editing by Fred Barbash and Mohammad Zargham)

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In blow to Obama, Senate blocks gun-control plan

By John Whitesides and David Lawder

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's campaign to curb gun violence after the Newtown school massacre was dealt a crippling blow on Wednesday when the Senate rejected a plan to expand background checks for gun buyers.

Despite emotional pleas from families of victims of the shootings in Newtown, Connecticut, and broad public support, the plan to extend background checks for sales made online and at gun shows failed on a 54-46 vote, six short of the 60 votes it needed to clear a procedural hurdle in the Senate.

It was a stark reminder of the gun culture's hold on America - or at least its politics - and a display of how each party has used Senate rules to effectively block legislation even when it has the support of the majority.

At the White House, a visibly angry Obama said he sympathized with Americans who were trying to make sense of it all.

"This was a pretty shameful day for Washington," said Obama, flanked by Newtown families and former Representative Gabrielle Giffords, who was severely wounded in a 2011 mass shooting in Arizona.

"I see this as just Round One," Obama said. "Sooner or later, we are going to get this right. The memories of these children demand it."

The plan by Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Republican Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania to expand background checks represented Obama's best hope to pass meaningful gun-control legislation after the killings of 20 children and six adults at Newtown's Sandy Hook Elementary School.

Other measures backed by the president - including a proposal to ban rapid-firing "assault" weapons like the one used in Connecticut and a limit on ammunition clips - also failed in a series of Senate votes that reflected senators' reluctance to be seen as undermining the constitutional right to bear arms.

The votes also showed the enduring political power of gun-rights defenders and the National Rifle Association, the nation's largest gun lobby.

"Our hearts are broken. Our spirit is not," Mark Barden, whose son was killed in Newtown, said at the White House after the vote as Obama looked on.

Barden vowed that his group of Sandy Hook victims' family members would continue to seek "common-sense solutions" to gun violence.

'SHOW SOME GUTS'

The votes in the Democratic-led Senate on Wednesday were the culmination of weeks of intense negotiations and lobbying over the proposed gun restrictions, and signaled the likely demise of the biggest package of gun legislation in Congress in two decades.

The political momentum for new gun-control laws had dissipated after December's shooting. Opponents criticized the proposals as government overreach that would infringe on citizens' gun rights under the U.S. Constitution's Second Amendment. The NRA mounted an aggressive lobbying effort that Obama said amounted to a series of "lies" and "scare tactics" about the potential impact of gun legislation.

"Expanded background checks would not have prevented Newtown," Republican Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa said on Wednesday in opposing the Manchin-Toomey plan.

Obama said senators were too worried that a "vocal minority" of gun owners would make them pay in the next election for their vote to support the gun-control amendments.

When the vote totals on the background checks plan were announced by Vice President Joe Biden, who presided over the Senate tallies, a spectator in the chamber's gallery shouted, "Shame on you!"

Minutes later, California Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein implored her colleagues to "show some guts" and support gun legislation aimed at reducing violence.

Feinstein's proposal to ban the sale of assault weapons drew support from just 40 members of the Senate, where Democrats control 55 of the 100 seats. The proposal to limit the size of ammunition magazines drew only 46 votes. All of the Senate amendments required a 60-vote threshold to clear procedural hurdles.

Several Senate Democrats are from states where hunting and gun ownership are a part of the culture, and any vote against gun rights increases the risk of facing a tough re-election fight against a well-funded Republican who will not compromise on gun rights.

'EVERY MEANS POSSIBLE'

Four Democrats who will face re-election in conservative, gun-friendly states opposed the Manchin-Toomey background checks amendment - Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Max Baucus of Montana.

Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid supported the measure, but changed his vote after it was apparent it would lose in order to preserve his option to bring the measure back up in the Senate.

Four Republicans backed it: Toomey, Susan Collins of Maine, John McCain of Arizona and Mark Kirk of Illinois.

Supporters promised political payback for foes of the amendment. Giffords said in a joint statement with husband Mark Kelly that the Senate "ignored the will of the American people."

"We will use every means possible to make sure the constituents of these senators know that their elected representatives ignored them, and put Washington D.C. special interest politics over the effort to keep their own communities safer from the tragedy of gun violence," they said.

The Manchin-Toomey background checks amendment allowed exemptions for private sales or gifts between families and friends and prohibited the creation of a national registry of guns. Polls show more than 80 percent of Americans support expanded background checks.

But the NRA had warned members the proposal would require checks for sales and gifts between family and friends and lead to a national registry.

The NRA's assertions are "a lie. That is simply a lie, and anybody who can read knows that is not factual," Manchin, a strong gun-rights defender, said on the Senate floor on Wednesday.

Reid, a Nevada gun owner and gun-rights defender, questioned why his colleagues would reject a proposal backed by nearly 90 percent of Americans.

"We must strike a better balance between the right to defend ourselves and the right of every child in America to grow up safe from gun violence," Reid said.

Reid did not say after the vote whether the Senate would pursue any additional measures related to gun violence. An underlying bill on the Senate floor would tighten restrictions on gun trafficking and bolster school security, but that would probably also have a hard time gaining 60 votes.

The Senate also rejected several Republican-sponsored amendments backed by the NRA that would have expanded gun rights.

But the influence of the gun culture and the gun lobby was clear when an NRA-backed plan to allow gun owners with permits to carry concealed weapons across state lines also failed to reach the 60-vote threshold - but earned more votes, 57, than the background checks amendment.

Besides the "concealed carry" proposal, the Senate rejected on a 52-48 vote, eight short of the 60 needed, an amendment from Grassley that would have replaced the existing gun-control bill with a plan to focus on prosecuting gun crimes, improving mental health records for gun owners and funding better school safety measures.

"Rather than restricting the rights of law-abiding Americans, we should be focusing on keeping guns out of the hands of violent criminals, which this legislation accomplishes," Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz said of Grassley's measure.

(Additional reporting by Kim Dixon; Editing by David Lindsey and Peter Cooney)

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Senate to take up gun-control measure this week

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Senate could vote as early as Wednesday on expanded background checks for gun buyers, but leading lawmakers said on Sunday it was uncertain whether the contentious proposal could gather enough support to pass.

The compromise legislation offered by Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Republican Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania is seen as President Barack Obama's best hope for meaningful gun-control law in the wake of last year's mass shooting in Newtown, Connecticut.

"We expect the vote this week. Wednesday is probably the most likely day for the Manchin-Toomey alternative," said Toomey on CNN's "State of the Nation."

"It's an open question whether we have the votes. I think it's going to be close."

The legislation calls for expanded criminal background checks of gun buyers to be required for commercial sales, including those made at gun shows and online. However, sales by private persons would be exempt.

The background checks, intended to prevent criminals and the mentally ill from buying guns, have met stiff opposition from conservative Republicans who argue that the rule infringes on the constitutional right of law-abiding Americans to own guns.

Toomey and Manchin, both ardent defenders of gun rights, have dismissed this assertion.

"This bill, if you are a criminal and have been mentally adjudicated, you may not like it," said Manchin.

Background checks have the support of Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican who was the party's presidential candidate in the 2008 election.

"I am very favorably disposed towards that. Eighty percent of the American people want to see a better background checks procedure," McCain said on CNN.

But gun-control legislation generally does not have the support of conservative Republicans, including Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, considered in some circles as a potential 2016 presidential candidate.

Rubio said the focus of the legislation should be on curbing gun violence, not restricting gun ownership.

"Gun laws are highly ineffective in terms of protecting the right of law abiding citizens to possess weapons, which is a Second Amendment guarantee, (and) keeping the guns out of the hands of criminals," said Rubio on NBC's "Meet the Press."

"I think this is a missed opportunity to have an honest and open conversation in this country about why these horrifying things are happening."

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; editing by Jackie Frank)

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Senate to cast first gun-control votes on Thursday

By Thomas Ferraro

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The fate of one of President Barack Obama's key gun-control proposals appeared on Monday night to be in the hands of two senators: one Democrat, the other Republican, both of them longtime opponents of restrictions on guns.

Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Republican Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania are seeking a compromise on expanding background checks for prospective gun buyers. The proposal appears to be Obama's best hope for meaningful gun-control legislation in the wake of the December massacre of 20 children and six adults at a school in Connecticut, where the president spoke Monday evening to a crowd that included some victims' families.

If Manchin and Toomey can't strike a deal, Obama's calls to require nearly all gun buyers to submit to background checks for criminal records and mental health problems likely will fail, Senate aides said on Monday.

Another centerpiece of Obama's efforts, a renewal of a ban on the sale of military-style assault weapons, appears unlikely to be approved, said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat. A proposed 10-bullet limit on ammunition magazines also appears to be in trouble, he has said.

Obama, who has called the day of the Newtown massacre the worst of his presidency, made a strong appeal on Monday for action in Congress.

But at this point, Senate aides said, there seems to be strong, bipartisan support for only two of Obama's proposals: a crackdown on gun trafficking and improvements to security at schools.

The talks between Manchin and Toomey - both allies of the National Rifle Association, the nation's largest gun-rights group - symbolize why the background checks proposal is not a sure thing in Congress, even though polls have indicated that it is backed by 80 to 90 percent of Americans.

Toomey is pushing for expanded background checks even as 13 conservative Republican senators are threatening a filibuster to delay votes on any gun-control bills.

And Manchin represents how Democrats' move in recent years to embrace candidates who strongly support gun rights is complicating the Democratic president's push for gun restrictions.

Manchin is among eight Senate Democrats rated as friendly to gun rights by the NRA to have joined the chamber since 2006.

That was when the Democratic officials - fed up with losing congressional races to Republicans in rural and conservative states such as Montana, Virginia, North Carolina, Alaska and West Virginia - stepped up its recruiting of pro-gun candidates.

The strategy worked.

Democrats won control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives in 2006 and increased their majorities in 2008, when Obama captured the White House.

The House fell back to Republicans in 2010, but not before conservative Democrats such as Manchin helped Obama get his healthcare overhaul through Congress.

But now, those conservative Democrats have become speed bumps for several of Obama's gun-control proposals - particularly his call to ban assault weapons, which both sides see as unlikely to pass even the Senate, where Democrats control 55 of the 100 seats.

On expanding background checks, "Manchin is upbeat about their chances of success," said one Senate aide, who offered an assessment of her own: "50-50."

SEEING A 'SLIPPERY SLOPE'

Reid, who schedules floor votes in the Senate, had planned to begin consideration of gun legislation this week. But that timetable could be pushed to next week to give Manchin and Toomey more time to negotiate, or if Republicans try to delay action, aides said.

Even the gun trafficking plan, which would make it a federal crime for someone banned from having a firearm to buy one, could face problems. The NRA is seeking to revise it in a way that critics say would make it difficult to enforce.

Obama's call to ban rapid-firing assault weapons - a pet cause of Senator Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat - has gone nowhere in part because even those in Feinstein's party are not solidly behind it.

Several Democrats who have joined the Senate since 2006 have said they could not vote for Feinstein's plan.

They include Manchin, Mark Begich of Alaska and Jon Tester of Montana, a gun-rights Democrat and farmer who won a Senate seat in 2006 by unseating a three-term Republican.

Tester said he sees an assault weapons ban as "a slippery slope" that could lead to other restrictions on gun ownership. He said he favors stepping up efforts to keep guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally ill.

"That would be the smart thing to do," Tester said.

Begich, another Democrat rated as a friend on Capitol Hill by the NRA, ousted a six-term Republican when he was elected in 2008. Begich is a co-sponsor of a bipartisan bill to clarify when a person loses the right to possess a firearm based on mental illness.

Critics of the bill, which is backed by the NRA, say the measure could make firearms more accessible to the mentally ill.

Manchin, elected to the Senate in 2010, has been trying for months to find a way to expand background checks while addressing gun-rights' advocates concerns that such checks could be used to create registries of gun owners. Gun rights advocates say the government could use such registries to confiscate weapons.

"I think everyone wants to do something that is right and responsible," Manchin said. "I really do."

A POLITICAL CALCULATION

Few Democrats regret the party's decision to recruit gun-rights candidates in recent years.

If senators such as Tester and Begich had not won their seats, many Democrats figure, the seats would be held by pro-gun Republicans - and many of Obama's legislative accomplishments, including the healthcare overhaul and new regulations on Wall Street, would not have happened.

"The profile of the guy who can win in these states is the profile of a guy who is pro-gun," said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Larry Sabato, who tracks congressional races as head of University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said that in 2006, "Democrats made a practical decision ... to win rather, than to be (ideologically) pure."

Sabato said he now sees some Republicans similarly bending their stances on some issues to try to appeal to more voters, such as easing their opposition to gay marriage and tax increases.

(Editing by David Lindsey and Lisa Shumaker)

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